For India and the current political dispensation, a Trump presidency does not create the same anxieties as among other US allies and partners. (Illustration by C R Sasikumar)
Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States. In the end, the election was not as closely contested as anticipated. The Republicans have also made gains in the Senate and will retain their majority in the House of Representatives. The US Supreme Court has a conservative majority already and this may be further strengthened during the second Trump presidency. Trump will potentially be one of the more powerful US presidents in recent memory with the ability to deliver on his ambitious but contested agenda. This includes radical measures on trade, such as his declared intent to put a 60 per cent tariff on all imports from China and an across-the-board 10-20 per cent tariff on imports from other countries. If he goes ahead with these tariffs, expect trade retaliation, most certainly from China.
The issue of abortion was not enough to bring a significant chunk of women voters to Kamala Harris. She also failed to mobilise the younger male cohort, despite its more liberal persuasion. And compared to President Joe Biden, she lost some support from the Latino and even Asian constituencies, which have been traditionally Democratic.
Clearly, this is a resounding rejection of the US liberal elite and a pervasive expression of middle-class and blue-collar worker anger over higher costs of living. The question is: Can Trump bring prices down? Will the proposed higher tariffs not result in even higher prices? But this will have to be confronted another day.
The other issue on which Trump has promised urgent and drastic action is immigration and this resonated with US voters. He may resume the construction of a wall along the southern border. But would large-scale deportation of illegal immigrants, as he has promised, be practical?
Trump is likely to jettison Biden’s signature initiative on climate change and energy, the Inflation Reduction Act. This may be coupled with the US walking out of the Paris Climate Change agreement yet again. The limited constraints on US oil and gas majors in conducting exploration and production in ecologically sensitive areas will almost certainly be abandoned. With the world’s largest economy giving up the ghost on climate change, the already bleak prospects for tackling global climate change have now become dire.
What about US foreign policy under Trump? There will be rejoicing in Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israel and deep anxiety and apprehension in Ukraine. We should expect Israel to double down on its military offensives in Gaza and southern Lebanon. The US will be more proactive in providing Israel with both advanced weapons and a protective shield against retaliation from any quarter. While Netanyahu may feel emboldened to carry out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Trump may not be ready to go that far. He may, however, widen the scope of economic sanctions against Iran and wink at covert and not-so-covert actions against Iranian targets. Trump’s antipathy to Iran is well known but may not extend to risking a wider war in the region.
The Europeans will have every reason to be deeply apprehensive of the second Trump presidency.
One, if Trump decides to abandon Ukraine, Europe will not be able to sustain support for it on its own. Two, if Trump reaches out to Russian President Vladimir Putin to try and broker a ceasefire, which will inevitably entail the loss of territory on the part of Ukraine, the Europeans will find themselves in a very difficult position, having to deal with a triumphant Putin. Trump’s disdain for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) will also weaken European security. Trump could also impose high tariffs on European imports and if that happens, the outlook for European economic and military security looks bleak.
If the record of the first Trump presidency is anything to go by, the Indo-Pacific region may fare better under Trump. China will likely remain the main target of US containment and, in that context, the importance of the Quadrilateral (Quad), comprising India, Japan, Australia and the US, is likely to be enhanced. Of interest to India is whether the US objective of weakening the strategic partnership between Russia and China will be advanced to any degree. If one were to hazard a guess, Putin will keep his strong economic and security partnership with China even as he tries to benefit from a less aggressive US posture against Russia. There is also the question as to what degree the US military and its intelligence establishments will be able or even willing to shed their deep-seated antipathy and suspicion of Russia, despite Trump’s predilections. He was not so successful during his previous tenure.
We will also need to await the key appointments he makes for the incoming administration to get a better sense of what to expect in the next four years.
For India and the current political dispensation, a Trump presidency does not create the same anxieties as among other US allies and partners. One asset is the obvious personal and even ideological affinity between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There appears to be confidence that since Trump is likely to be transactional in his approach, deals can be made with him even in fraught economic and commercial relationships. Trump is less likely to put pressure on India on human rights and communal issues though the ongoing judicial process involving alleged assassination attempts against American and Canadian Khalistani elements will not go away.
The deepening defence and technology relationship will probably continue to advance as it has over several administrations. The overall expectation is that the bilateral relationship will remain in positive territory. However, a Trump presidency is likely to disrupt the global geopolitical landscape in unpredictable ways. The global economy may be severely impacted if Trump follows through on his economic agenda. The collateral impact on Indian economic prospects may be quite serious. Trump’s anti-immigration policies will affect Indian access to the US. The large and growing illegal immigration from India to the US may become a contentious issue in our relations if Trump follows through on his deportation threat.
At this stage, some straws in the wind may be highlighted. There will be greatly clarity once we have an idea of the new administration team and a laying out of a policy agenda. There is every likelihood of a roller-coaster ride. Seat belts must be kept fastened at all times.
The writer is a former foreign secretary of India
