External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar being received by Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif at the venue of the SCO meeting in Islamabad on Wednesday. (ANI photo)
Even civility in India-Pakistan relations cannot be taken for granted, more than 77 years after the Partition of Bharat. Are there faint signals, then, that Minister S Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad, for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, may lead to a thaw? The approach during this visit of Pakistan’s “establishment”, characterised by warmth and courtesy, stands in stark contrast to the more abrasive actions seen at previous engagements, suggesting a potential shift in Islamabad’s diplomatic stance. The SCO frowns on raising bilateral issues at its meetings, but that has, in the past, not muzzled Pakistan’s attempts at embarrassing India. There is no doubt too that Jaishankar conducted himself with the grace and dignity required in the circumstances in Islamabad without diluting India’s positions on key issues. And while there were no photo-ops of India’s minister at the Margalla hills overlooking Islamabad, the hosts, by all accounts, reciprocated with traditional mehman nawazi (hospitality).
In the lead-up to Jaishankar’s visit, Pakistan has been grappling with internal turmoil. The country is facing substantial political instability, economic challenges, sectarian violence and a growing wave of public discontent against army “repression”. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government, and Pakistan’s armed forces, are under pressure to stabilise the situation, making it perhaps imperative for Pakistan to reassess its foreign policy, particularly towards India. The recognition that a normalisation of relations with India could serve, at least, as a means to divert attention from domestic issues is becoming increasingly apparent.
The hospitality and warmth displayed during Jaishankar’s recent visit were notable, particularly when contrasted with the abrasive behaviour by Pakistan’s former foreign minister, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, at the SCO meeting in Goa last year. Bhutto’s attitude showcased a more traditional approach to diplomacy that has characterised Pakistan’s stance, particularly since 2019, following the abrogation of Article 370 in J&K. In contrast, Jaishankar’s visit was marked by an effort to reach out by the hosts, including engaging in private conversations and a lack of rancour, indicating a potential departure from a purely adversarial posture.
The backdrop of Shehbaz Sharif’s recent speech at the UNGA, which too was high on anti-India rhetoric, highlights the complexities of Pakistan’s internal and external narratives and the manner in which the country’s leadership is groping for a way out of the cul-de-sac. While Sharif’s speech emphasised Pakistan’s traditional peeves, the subsequent warmth shown towards Jaishankar suggests that there may be a growing recognition within the Pakistani leadership that a more balanced approach could be beneficial. This may have the support of Pakistan’s inscrutable and all-powerful General Asim Munir, the chief of army staff.
The backdrop of this diplomatic overture is particularly significant given the successful election in Jammu and Kashmir, which had ushered in a new democratic dispensation. While it is too early to assert that relations have definitively turned a corner, the developments following Jaishankar’s visit suggest that Pakistan may be undergoing a strategic rethink towards India.
Several factors could be influencing this introspection within Pakistan. First, as stated earlier, is the deep turmoil within Pakistan. The internal situation has been tumultuous, with rising inflation, economic instability and political unrest. These challenges may finally prompt the need for the government to focus on stabilising the country rather than engaging in confrontational politics with India.
Second, is the inherent pragmatism of the Sharifs. The current government under Shehbaz Sharif, under the mentorship of former PM Nawaz Sharif, appears to be adopting a more pragmatic approach to governance. Rather than relying on populist rhetoric, there is a growing acknowledgment among Pakistani leaders that engagement with India could yield economic benefits and contribute to regional stability. This may have the support, finally, of Pakistan’s most important actor, its army.
The third factor is India’s rise on the global stage. As India continues to assert itself as a regional and global power, Pakistan may be recalibrating its approach. With India’s growing economy and strategic partnerships, there is a realisation that fostering a cooperative relationship could offer more advantages than maintaining a hostile stance.
What should India do? India’s policy towards Pakistan has historically been influenced by three key actors: Realists, liberal institutionalists and constructivists. The realists, known as “Subedars,” have largely shaped the discourse during the Modi years, advocating for a hardline stance focused on national security. However, recent developments suggest it may be time to incorporate liberal and constructivist perspectives into the dialogue.
The liberal institutionalists, or “Saudagars,” emphasise the potential for trade, economic ties, and people-to-people connections as avenues for peace. Meanwhile, the constructivists, or “Sufis,” advocate for dialogue, cultural exchanges, and reconciliation, stressing the importance of addressing historical grievances and building trust.
Incorporating these perspectives into India’s Pakistan policy could facilitate a more balanced approach that acknowledges security concerns while exploring avenues for cooperation. Incremental moves, such as confidence-building measures, trade agreements, and cultural exchanges, could create a more conducive atmosphere for “change” within Pakistan.
Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad has reignited discussions about the potential for renewed engagement between the two nations. The genuine hospitality and the absence of hostility during the meetings may signal a possible shift in the dynamic of India-Pakistan relations. While significant obstacles remain, these developments encourage cautious optimism. As we reflect on the outcomes of the visit, it is essential to remain vigilant, while closely watching developments in Pakistan and perhaps taking measures to shape them in a manner that benefits the entire region.
The writer is Dean and Professor, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University and former member, National Security Council’s Advisory Board
