The mandate of the just concluded elections is decisive for the National Conference as a political party, could pose difficulties for it as it runs the government and is potentially disruptive for the politics of Jammu and Kashmir. J&K is a complex region whose politics has just become more complicated. Apart from the historical alienation of the Valley from the Union, politics within the erstwhile state seems to have become completely polarised.
The mandate is virtually along communal lines, which cannot augur well for either the state or the country. This election will go down in the electoral history of J&K as the one in which Muslims of J&K, who have never been a political category, have been made one. With Pir Panjal (Rajouri and Poonch) and Chenab Valley (Doda and Bhaderwah), administratively a part of Jammu province, voting largely for NC,
the 75-year-old Dixon plan of dividing the state along the Chenab seems to have een resuscitated.
With the elected representatives of the entire region of the Jammu plains not being in government, it should not come as a surprise if the demand for a separate statehood for Jammu, which is often raised, becomes strident. Post 2019, for all practical purposes, Jammu has been virtually bifurcated from Kashmir, administratively. The geographically split mandate has distanced the two politically. This has only added to the fissures between Jammu and Kashmir, which at the best of times have been adversarial, if not antagonistic to each other. The two now share little else than a troubled past, having nothing in common; geographically, linguistically, culturally, ethnically and economically or in terms of religion.
The only option going forward is for the National Conference to once again become the pan-J&K party which it was till 1996. The last five years have shown that NC is a mass based, strong and rooted party even if it has a leadership that is centralised, and familial. It is inclusive party with a support base cutting across sunnis, shias, gujjars, pahadis and pandits.It goes to their credit that despite a grave situation, the National Conference has not lost a single leader to other parties. The Peoples Democratic Party, on the other hand, was decimated with its almost entire leadership deserting it. The sole seat of Ramban in Jammu plains that the National Conference has won should give them some hope and direction.
The BJP has, of course, not won; it hasn’t lost either. It has consolidated its base in Jammu way beyond what was expected. This despite the business community of Jammu, a very powerful stakeholder, having borne the brunt of abrogation of Article 370 in terms of loss of business; from rice milling to liquor business, their interests have been badly hurt.
In this context, the Congress Party’s political wisdom and electoral strategy is simply baffling. They were best placed to give BJP a run for their money and even beat them in Jammu. Indeed, till a couple of months ago, BJP was clearly struggling in Jammu. Yet they did not go for the kill. Rahul Gandhi chose to campaign in the safe seats in the Valley but not in Jammu.
On the contrary, the BJP put all the heavy political artillery to good use. Where the BJP’s electoral strategy has failed is in trying to fragment the votes in the Valley. The big lesson for them from the election is that it is difficult to convert a demographic majority into a political minority. They must also go to the drawing board in light of the fact that in this election, in the Valley, it was not only relevant who people voted for but also who they voted against. The vote in the Valley was decisively anti-BJP. Organisations like Apni Party, Awami Ittehad Party and many others including independents have been decimated for being perceived as proxies goes to show precisely that.
Having suffered a shocking defeat in the parliamentary elections, Omar Abdullah must be relieved to have won both the seats he contested and delighted that his party has registered a resounding victory. But he must not be looking forward to being a
titular Chief Minister with the elected cabinet playing second fiddle to an unelected appointee.
With its mandate, the National Conference with its extensive cadres across the Valley will be expected to soothe and satisfy the “collective conscience of Kashmiris”. This can be done only by reasserting the primacy of the legislature and restoring or redefining the power of elected representatives. It is a first step in the journey for restoration of statehood, reaffirming the social identity and rebalancing the asymmetric federal relations that J&K had. A very tall order, indeed.
Apart from forming the government, which is the easy part, the National Conference needs to regain the political power to be able to once again set the narrative across the state. It might be worthwhile for them to ponder if a return to the past is the best way to the future. The contours of a new compact relevant to today’s time merits collective societal thinking.
The politics of Kashmir is, what historian Primo Levi once described, in the “grey zone”: Situations in which individuals and institutions strive to survive through a mixture of weakness, compromise and hesitation, as well as with public displays of moral courage and dignity. This election has been about the latter. For the last five years, the majority has had its way — in the Parliament and in other institutions. In the just concluded elections, the minority has had its say, not meekly but loud and clear.
The writer is former finance minister of Jammu & Kashmir
