Haryana win points to BJP’s resilience

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) third consecutive win in Haryana is remarkable in many ways. It has not only sidestepped anti-incumbency of two terms but has also won more seats compared to its tally (40) in the last legislative assembly. That the party has managed this revival after it lost half the Lok Sabha seats from the state also makes its performance remarkable.

The single-most important factor that seems to have enabled the BJP’s stunning reversal of fortunes is an OBC polarisation in its favour. With two-time chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda at its helm, the dominant Jat community had consolidated behind the Congress. The BJP turned this to its advantage by mobilising the OBCs and appointing non-Jats, first Manohar Lal Khattar and later, Nayab Singh Saini, as chief ministers. The choice of Saini, the first OBC MLA to be Haryana CM, also helped the party to neutralise anti-incumbency and make the polls a lot more about social engineering than governance. The leadership squabbles in the Congress made its governance pitch unconvincing.

The Haryana outcome will puncture the Opposition narrative that the fall in the BJP’s seats in the general elections marks the beginning of a trend, and the beginning of the end. With assembly polls due soon in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, and early next year in Delhi, a win in Haryana would have boosted the Opposition’s morale. This unexpected downturn — exit polls predicted a BJP defeat — is a sobering lesson for the Opposition, especially the Congress. The BJP will now approach the crucial Maharashtra contest on a high.

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