Vote counting begins after exit polls suggest edge for Cong, allies in Haryana, J&K

The assembly elections in the two states were the first set of polls since the national polls this summer. Their outcomes are expected to have an impact nationally ahead of elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand later this year.

Single-phase polling was held for Haryana’s 90 seats on October 5. As many as 67.90% of the eligible voters turned out to vote for 1,031 candidates. The Congress hoped to win five years after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to secure a majority but formed the government with the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP)’s help.

Some exit polls suggested the Congress could even get its highest-ever vote share while parties such as the Indian National Lok Dal, Bahujan Samaj Party, and JJP could be wiped out.

The elections were fought on issues such as discontent over the short-service armed services recruitment scheme, Agnipath, and protests of India’s top wrestlers against sexual harassment and farmer discontent.

In 2019, the Congress won 31 of the 90 seats in Haryana while the BJP bagged 40, short of the majority mark of 46. The BJP’s alliance with JJP collapsed earlier this year. The BJP also replaced Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini as the chief minister.

The assembly polls in J&K were the first in a decade and also since it lost its semi-autonomous status in August 2019 with the nullification of Constitution’s Article 370. The region also lost its statehood in 2019. The elections were expected to pave the way for the restoration of statehood, which was among the major poll issues.

The polls were held in three phases. Twenty-four seats went to the polls in the first phase, 26 in the second, and 40 in the third. As many as 873 candidates were in the fray for 90 seats.

The election was seen as a direct contest between BJP and NC-Congress combine. The Peoples Democratic Party of former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti, former minister Sajjad Gani Lone-led People’s Conference, the Apni Party, Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party, Jamaat-e-Islami-backed independent candidates, and the Democratic Progressive Azad Party were also in the fray.

Exit polls suggested that the contest was largely between the BJP and the NC-Congress combine. They predicted that the BJP was expected to emerge as the biggest party in the Jammu region. In Kashmir, the NC-Congress alliance was set to emerge ahead of others. The exit polls suggested that the NC-Congress alliance could be close to the majority mark of 46. Some even predicted that it could secure the figure on its own.

Ahead of the counting of the votes, there was much concern over the lieutenant governor’s (LG) powers to nominate five members to the assembly. The NC said it would approach the Supreme Court after a BJP leader suggested the nominated members would come from his party.

The J&K Reorganisation Act passed in 2019 for the constitutional changes in J&K and the amendment in 2023 gave the LG powers to nominate two women, two migrants including a woman, and one member from displaced persons from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The laws are silent on the modalities of the process. It was also unclear whether the five nominees would have voting rights. If the five members have these rights, it will push the halfway mark in the assembly from 46 to 48.

In 2014, the PDP emerged as the single-largest party with 28 seats. It formed an alliance government with the BJP, which had 25 seats. The government collapsed in 2018 after the BJP withdrew support. The governor’s rule was imposed in June 2018 before the Constitutional changes were effected on August 5, 2019, with the revocation of Article 370 and bifurcation of the region.

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