Rahul Gandhi is once again in the eye of a storm. His comments on the issue of reservation, about Sikhs being insecure in India and his meeting with known India critic, US Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, during his recent three-day US visit, have predictably set many off. The BJP and a section of the media went into overdrive to target him again as an erratic and immature politician who not just maligns the country’s image but also has no qualms about hobnobbing with “anti-India” forces on foreign soil.
Congress quite justifiably argues that the BJP and its formidable echo system have mastered the art of distorting and selectively cherry-picking Rahul Gandhi’s statements. But that’s been the case for over 10 years now, yielding them unprecedented political dividends. So one cannot, from a purely political perspective, fault the BJP for its tactics. The question is: When will Rahul Gandhi stop scoring these self-goals? As Leader of Opposition, and the principal anti-Modi voice in the country, he cannot simply shrug his shoulders and move on, as has been his preferred mode. He has to accept that politics is also very much about perception.
And there is no one in his country, perhaps in the whole democratic world, who should know this better than him. The kind of concerted campaign of calumny and opprobrium he has faced in the last decades has few parallels in political history.
The fact that he survived this relentless onslaught is as much a tribute to his strength of character and courage of conviction as the fact that he is, as he’d be happy to acknowledge, also an entitled political dynast who presides over a party that has stood solidly behind him, even when it plunged to hitherto unthinkable depths in two consecutive national elections.
But the constant ridicule of the past has given way to a degree of respect and admiration for Rahul Gandhi post the June 2024 election outcome. Also, there is a near-unanimous acceptance of his new stature; that his is the most vocal, committed and unwavering articulation against the ideas and ideology represented by the BJP and the RSS.
As the BJP and its powerful spin factory ensured that focus remained on the more embarrassing aspects of Rahul Gandhi’s US trip, some other interesting observations like “dar nikal gaya” (people are no longer afraid) and the 56-inch chest getting shrivelled, got drowned in the din. That’s the power of agenda and narrative setting. The sooner Rahul Gandhi realises this, the better it will be for him and the Opposition cause.
The Opposition should also accept that the governing coalition has a comfortable majority and looks stable and secure for now, pending unforeseen dramatic changes in the coalition arithmetic. So, is the Opposition’s new-found confidence an accurate assessment of the political reality on the ground? Or is the growing chatter (in the anti-BJP bloc) about this being the beginning of the end for the NDA a case of premature wish fulfilment? Nobody knows the answer, but this is probably a good time to examine the issues being raised by Rahul Gandhi to take on the BJP.
The caste census seems to be one of the Opposition’s main planks. And the government’s clumsy response makes many believe that this pitting of Mandal against Kamandal can be BJP’s Achilles’ heel. However, if it was so straightforward, then what explains the Opposition’s poor showing in Bihar, seen by many as the ultimate citadel of caste politics? Clearly, the caste-backed NDA coalition in the state (with Nitish Kumar, Chirag Paswan, Jitan Ram Manjhi and the forwards supporting the BJP) proved to be more potent.
Also, even as it constantly discusses social justice and caste, the Opposition should not completely let go of the aspirational young and the middle class — many of whom think that both the BJP and Congress see little political use for them and that they have, consequently, been left to fend for themselves. This refrain about redistribution of wealth also has its pitfalls. Framing politics as a zero-sum game can seem rhetorically attractive in the heat of an electoral battle, but it is fraught with dangers. The goal should be to lift the largest segment of population out of poverty, not threaten to make the rich poor. Marxist and ultra-left thinking may be counter-productive in a young, aspirational country. Having pitched his tent further to the left of Nehruvian socialism, Rahul Gandhi runs the risk of alienating those who would prefer that the country remains on a centrist pitch.
Rahul Gandhi’s description of the BJP vs Congress contest as a clash of two contrasting ideas of India also puts a sharp ideological focus on the issue. The importance of the idea of India cannot be overstated. But in a hard-nosed and pragmatic analysis of the 2024 elections, one did not find the idea of India being a decisive and top-of-the-mind issue among voters. Many people did talk about the shrill campaign around Muslims and disapproved of it, but one saw little empirical evidence of them changing their voting behaviour. Rahul Gandhi and the Opposition need to remain true to their idea of India, but they need to also be respectful of Hindu beliefs and sensibilities, as the average Indian is no textbook liberal.
The attack-on-the-Constitution line certainly worked. Most of all, it found resonance on the issue of reservation, and during election travels, one did get a sense of growing disquiet among people regarding the BJP’s position on this issue. A mix of arrogance and misuse of agencies and institutions to browbeat the Opposition (Maharashtra), centralised ticket distribution with little care and respect for state leaders and local sensibilities (Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan) and fatigue and anti-incumbency best explains the 2024 outcome.
Buoyed by their own performance and the BJP’s reverses in the parliamentary elections, Rahul Gandhi and the Opposition alliance look to be in a promising space right now. But they would do well to remember that on the other side are masters of realpolitik and consummate 24×7 politicians who will stop at nothing to snatch back whatever perception advantage the Opposition may be enjoying at present.
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