In the last decade, extreme weather events have repeatedly underscored the need to upgrade systems that forecast the ways of the elements. The National Monsoon Mission, launched in 2012, did provide the country with an umbrella framework that can be tweaked to predict weather on multiple timescales. But with climate change threatening to make weather even more chaotic in the coming years, greater precision in predicting heavy downpours, heat spells and sea-level changes is a major prerequisite in securing lives and livelihoods and preventing social and economic disruptions. The state of knowledge on cloudbursts and lightning — it claims more lives than floods and landslides — is nascent. It’s welcome, therefore, that the government has placed weather preparedness on a mission mode. Last week, the Cabinet cleared the Rs 2,000-crore Mission Mausam which hones in on indigenous research on instruments that gauge atmospheric pressure, wind speeds and humidity. It will involve adding around 70 doppler radars, 10 wind profilers and 10 radiometers. To put this scale of the Mission in perspective, the IMD has so far installed less than 40 doppler radars and the agency gets wind profiler data largely from the navy.
Climate knowledge has developed immensely in recent years. Yet, it remains an emerging science, with myriad local facets. The Mission could help the met department have a keen ear to the ground. At the same time, the policy cannot have a fixed template: It will need to evolve with the likely unravelling of some of the complexities of climate science. In recent years, AI-aided research has shown promise in enhancing weather prediction at costs less than conventional computing power. It’s also a nebulous technology. However, policymakers should not neglect to explore AI’s potential in making the country climate smart. The challenge in all this will be to balance ambition with a realistic approach. One component of the mission, for instance, focuses on controlling rainfall. Cloud seeding has been used in a limited way in the US, China, parts of the UAE, Russia and Australia. However, the science and environmental effects of weather controlling mechanisms are not well understood and the jury on their cost-effectiveness and utility for large-scale operations is still out.
Weather prediction is one part of making the country climate resilient. A related aspect is to make cities, towns and rural areas ready for the erratic behaviour of the elements — predicting landslides, floods, and shielding people from their cataclysmic effects. Slope-wise early warning landslide systems are expensive. Yet, the growing number of land slips in the country means susceptibility assessments and investments in warning systems cannot be postponed. Similarly, glacial lake outbursts — in Sikkim last year, for instance — underline the need to identify the most vulnerable among such water bodies and model their peak discharge under different scenarios. Finally, climate preparedness will require urban and infrastructure planners to be sensitive to local socioeconomic conditions and ecology. Coordination between agencies and experts in these areas with Mission Mausam’s endeavours could make for more robust approach.
