Monsoon continues to remain unusually active over northwest India during August and the pattern is likely to resume in the first week of September too, meteorologists said.
A deep depression over Saurashtra has caused severe flooding over parts of Gujarat, a low-pressure system over east India brought heavy rains to eastern states while Delhi-NCR also received spells of heavy rainfall mainly due to the monsoon trough being located near Delhi.
Since June 1, there is 7% excess rain over the country with 17% excess over central India; 2% excess over northwest India; 18% over peninsular India with 11% deficiency over east and northeast India.
In August, there was 15.9% excess rainfall over the country with 31.4% excess over northwest India; 7.2% excess over east and northeast India; 17.2% excess over central India and 1.3% deficiency over peninsular India.
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Over northwest India, there is 76% excess rain since June 1; 39% excess over east Rajasthan; 27% deficiency over Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh; 29% deficiency over Punjab; 22% deficiency over Himachal Pradesh and 16% deficiency over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi subdivision.
Gujarat depression to become cyclone over Arabian Sea
The deep depression over Saurashtra and Kutch likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm Asna over northeast Arabian Sea on Friday.
Extremely heavy rainfall is likely to continue at isolated places of Saurashtra and Kutch till Friday and decrease thereafter.
“The deep depression which has been sustaining for a few days over Saurashtra will find even more favourable conditions to intensify into a cyclone over Arabian Sea. It will get energy from the ocean and get refuelled. The wind shear is low. The Madden Julian Oscillation is in a favourable position. Circumstances are favourable for intensification over Arabian Sea,” said a senior official of India Meteorological Department (IMD).
It is unusual that a system emerges over land and becomes a cyclone after it enters the ocean, but this has happened twice in the past including a depression that emerged over Saurashtra and became a cyclone over Arabian Sea, the official said.
The deep depression is expected to move west-southwestwards, emerge into northeast Arabian Sea off Kachchh and adjoining Saurashtra and Pakistan coasts and intensify into a cyclonic storm on Friday. Thereafter, it would continue to move nearly west-southwestwards over northeast Arabian Sea away from Indian coast during the subsequent two days.
More rain from September 1 over NW India
The low-pressure over central and adjoining north Bay of Bengal is likely to cause very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall likely over Odisha, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe and Heavy to very heavy rainfall over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Telangana during next 2-3 days.
Between Wednesday and Thursday, heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy rain was recorded Saurashtra and Kutch and Heavy rainfall at isolated places over Odisha, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat region, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka.
More rain is expected over northwest India including Delhi-NCR from Saturday onwards.
“Rain will reduce over the next two days over northwest India. But rain will pick up again from September 1 when the monsoon trough shifts again to its normal position. It has shifted to the south of its normal position now. We can also expect isolated heavy to very heavy rain over the region on September 2 and 3,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather.
IMD had issued a “yellow” category alert for Delhi for Thursday which implies that agencies should “watch” but rainfall on Thursday in Delhi was in “heavy” category.
“The low-pressure area will travel west-northwestwards and become more marked over westcentral and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal by 30 August. Thereafter, while moving towards north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts, it is likely to intensify into a depression over westcentral and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal during subsequent 2 days,” IMD warned.
This is likely to cause very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall (12.5cm to over 20cm) likely over Odisha, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe and Heavy to very heavy rainfall over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Telangana during next 2-3 days.
“Monsoon is in extremely active condition over the country. There are two weather systems — over Rajasthan and Gangetic West Bengal. Already, there is extremely heavy rain over Gujarat already. Very heavy rain will continue over the region. East India will also get very heavy rain. Delhi NCR, Haryana, Punjab are expected to record sporadic rain and thundershowers during the week. Rainfall will increase,” M Mohapatra, director general, IMD had said last week.
