State polls, with national fallout

Nationally, the impact is likely to be twofold. One, this is the beginning of a string of assembly polls that will also involve Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi — all regions where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is up against strong Opposition coalitions. Its reverberations, therefore, will be felt in Delhi where the party is dependent on allies for the first time in a decade. Two, these elections will be just as important for the Opposition coalition because though it fought the Lok Sabha as a unified bloc, both J&K and Haryana will likely see individual parties in the fray. The results will determine the balance of power in the national Opposition bloc and shape the bargaining power of the Congress, which still rules only three states on its own.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the polls are the first electoral exercise in the erstwhile state in a decade. Since 2014, the region, already among the most volatile areas in the world, has undergone tectonic changes. It has seen the collapse of its state government, the controversial imposition of the Governor’s rule even as two parties rushed to Raj Bhavan to lay claim to power, the landmark-but-polarising abrogation of Article 370 and the bifurcation of the state into two Union Territories, and the near-curfew conditions in the Valley that saw mainstream politicians detained and political activity suspended. Five years have passed since the abrogation but Kashmiris have voted in only one major election, that too three months ago. The UT polls, therefore, will be an informal referendum on the Centre’s decisions and a test of whether its stated objectives — unification, curbing terror, and boosting development — have worked. In Jammu too, there are signs that the initial enthusiasm around the abrogation has dimmed as terror strikes have spiked over the last two years and authorities have scrambled to ensure adequate security.

Expect thorny questions about the controversial delimitation process and the recent expansion of the lieutenant governor’s authority to feature as prominently as local issues of development. More than in any other election, local identity and pride will feature as a key poll narrative. If the elections are free of violence and see a spontaneous turnout, it will be in itself — irrespective of the results — a triumph. The Centre has promised that statehood will follow.

Though Haryana is next door to Delhi, its politics are a world apart. Here, the general elections saw a neck-and-neck battle between the BJP and the Congress. Here, the government’s controversial short-service scheme in the armed forces, Agnipath, is likely to play a big role in shaping the electoral narrative, as will old cleavages of caste and agrarian discontent. The BJP-led government has survived a tumultuous year where the chief minister was abruptly changed after an ally, the Jannayak Janata Party, pulled out, and will battle anti-incumbency.

The 2024 polls threw up surprising results and vigorous debate around evolving political dynamics based on the shifting sands of caste, economic distress and aspiration. The elections in Haryana and J&K will be its first real test.

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