Haniyeh’s assassination and the Beirut strike threaten to expand the conflict into an all-out regional war.
How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator?” The question posed by Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani — Qatar is a mediator in the ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel — in the aftermath of the assassination, allegedly by Israel, of Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’s politburo and one of its primary negotiators, frames the fundamental issue in the Middle East. The Benjamin Netanyahu government, seemingly immune to international pressure or criticism, is playing a maximalist game that makes a negotiated peace a more distant possibility. The number of deaths in Gaza is now at nearly 40,000 and injuries are over twice that number. Less than 24 hours before Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran, Israel claimed it had killed a Hezbollah commander in an airstrike in Beirut. Israel must know that this hard militarism does more than just make Palestinians, and the region, more insecure — it also damages its own social and political fabric irretrievably.
Haniyeh’s assassination and the Beirut strike threaten to expand the conflict into an all-out regional war. Iran’s Supreme Leader and Revolutionary Guards Council (IRGC) have already spoken of retaliation, including through the “axis of Resistance” — a term it uses for the network of non-state actors including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis that are engaged in various degrees of conflict with Israel. The assassination on Iranian soil shows the depth of Israel’s penetration of its security shield. The IRGC cannot appear to be weak, and it may well be the case that the cycle of violence — through proxies and agents, if not more directly — could continue and escalate. India has huge economic stakes in the region, apart from its commitment to peace, that are endangered by the conflict. In addition to the estimated 8.9 million migrant workers, it has much to gain from the India-Middle-East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi last year. Without peace and stability, the IMEC cannot take off. As a friend to Israel as well as Palestine, Delhi should continue to do all it can to bring both sides to the negotiating table.
Earlier this week, Israel’s military police were surrounded by right-wing protesters — endorsed by some leaders of the ruling coalition — after the arrest of soldiers accused of abuse of Palestinians in a detention facility. In essence, hate and impunity were being championed over due process. For a country that pledges commitment to the rule of law, that should be unacceptable. Netanyahu must realise that there are no winners in this war.
