Iran’s geopolitical orientation has a powerful impact on the prospects for peace and stability in the world.
In a major surprise, the reformist candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, won the second round of voting last Friday to become the ninth president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The elections were held after the previous president Ibrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in May. Unlike his predecessor Raisi and his electoral rival Saeed Jalili, both of whom pursued hardline policies at home and abroad, Pezeshkian offers a different path. He has promised to make peace with the world, free the internet, and lift social restrictions, especially on women. For the people of a country that has been locked in a prolonged conflict with many of its Arab neighbours and the West, and endured endless censorship and repression at home, Pezeshkian could bring a breath of fresh air.
The first round of elections was marked by a small turnout of less than 40 per cent that reflected a growing apathy towards the political process and mounting pessimism about the possibility for positive change. Pezeshkian appears to have enthused the urban voters to come back to the polling booths in the second round. His rival, Jalili, in contrast, was threatening to double down on social control at home and intensify the confrontation with the world. Besides the higher turnout, the squabbles within the conservative camp may have facilitated the victory of Pezeshkian. Although he has rekindled hope for much desired change, he knows that the elected president is not the master of the Iran polity. That privilege belongs to the “Supreme Leader”, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who heads Iran’s “rule by clerics”. Pezeshkian served under two liberal presidents — Ayatollah Khatami and Hassan Rouhani. Both had promised reform at home and reengagement with the world but could not deliver. But politics is the art of the possible and if he is lucky opportunities could open up for Pezeshkian in the days ahead as the ageing Khamenei struggles to manage the multiple crises enveloping Iran. Cynics might even argue that Khamenei could give Pezeshkian a longer rope to govern as part of an effort to restore the fading legitimacy of the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Iran’s geopolitical orientation has a powerful impact on the prospects for peace and stability in the world. Iran has the potential to become a swing state in the deepening great power conflict between the US and Europe on the one hand and the Sino-Russian alliance on the other. To its west, Tehran is at the heart of multiple conflicts, including the war in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen. To the north, Iran is a critical factor in the Caucasus, Caspian, and Central Asia. Tehran is also a critical player shaping the turbulent frontiers of Afghanistan and Pakistan and the balance between Kabul and Rawalpindi. Delhi, which has cultivated a productive relationship with Iran’s deep state in recent years, must be prepared to seize new possibilities for advancing bilateral ties with Pezeshkian.
