Results of the election to the European Parliament (EP) indicate that the centrist parties have managed to hold their ground. Leaders in key EU member states are, however, red-faced given the far-right surge in their countries.
These elections, spread across the 27 member states of the European Union, saw around 375 million voters engaged in the second largest exercise of franchise in the world, after India. The EP has 720 seats and the MEPs are elected on the basis of proportional representation.
Major national parties in European countries coalesce to form political groups at the European Parliament. The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), which includes Germany’s CDU, once again emerged as the largest grouping securing 190 seats. The second largest grouping, the Socialists and Democrats, fell by a few seats with 136 MEPs. Together these two centrist groups will still control around 45 per cent of the European Parliament, as was the case in the previous parliament elected in 2019.
The liberal parties, grouped under RENEW, and the Greens, champions of environmental agendas, both took a drubbing dropping around 20 seats each while groupings of Eurosceptics and independents took far-right and nationalist positions gaining a similar number of seats.
The damage by the far right at the European level was somewhat contained, but nationally both France and Germany, the two big drivers of the EU, saw their gains embarrass their national governments. In France, National Rally, the right-wing party of Marie Le Pen secured 31 per cent of the vote, more than double that of the party aligned with President Emmanuel Macron forcing the latter to dissolve the National Assembly and call general elections. Of course, this is also a gambit by President Macron to preserve a pole position in French politics nationally. But the sheer mortification of the European elections can hardly be hidden.
In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party that includes elements of the far right, including some with radical views and is anti-immigration, obtained a 16 per cent vote share as compared to 14 per cent by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SDP). The CDU, which is in opposition in the German Parliament, obtained 30 per cent. Similar gains by the far right were seen in Austria and Belgium; the latter’s prime minister has offered his resignation to the Belgian King.
The vote share of Brothers of Italy, the country’s ruling party, saw a major rise from six per cent in 2019 to 28 per cent this time. Giorgia Meloni, the party’s Prime Minister, though nationalist and somewhat right-wing nationally, has been fairly moderate at the European level — including in not taking any pro-Russia positions, a common among most other right-wingers in Europe. The results should help in consolidating her position as a leader who would count at the EU. Indeed, she has been singled out as a constructive leader by Ursula von der Leyen, who is making a bid to retain the powerful job of President of the European Commission and was the declared lead candidate of the EPP for this position.
Nomination for key leadership roles at the EU, especially President of the European Commission, is subject to complex negotiations among the 27 member states and usually involves a certain power sharing among the countries and the political groupings as the nominees need the approval of the European Parliament too. In 2019, Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen was backed by the two centrist parties and the liberals. As part of the power-sharing, the Socialist Josep Borrell from Spain took the post of High Representative for Foreign Affairs.
This time too, these three groupings add up to more than a majority, and the re-election of von der Leyen appears the likely outcome. But certain voices are suggesting her replacement and/or political arrangement of the centre right tying up with those further right, such as the conservatives, rather than the centre left or the Greens. They argue that the right must coalesce and that the far right does have a point on the matter of immigration that resonates with their voters and shouldn’t be ignored. Also, they are conscious that to ensure the primacy of the right, the centre right needs to engage the far right. This could also indicate a preparation for working with a possible Trump administration across the Atlantic.
The European Parliament, while not having the powers to initiate legislative action, is nonetheless important as it must approve important EU actions and agreements with other countries. In the present scenario, ties with Russia are uppermost at both the EU level and for EU countries. Here, the EU and EU countries’ policies barring some like Hungary, of working in tandem with NATO and the US to counter Russia, is an agreed dictum. It saw revalidation at the recent G7 Summit where even stronger measures to counter Russia and support Ukraine were agreed upon.
The other major issue, ties with China, also saw EU leaders one with the US in adding further pressure — no matter that the EU as a whole and its largest economy, Germany, seriously need to maintain their trade and investment ties with China and know very well that a tightening by them could see reciprocal action by China that would hurt them. Also, the EU and EU countries can only be expected to keep up their interest in the Indo-Pacific.
On India’s part, the important matter will be to try and conclude the long pending trade and investment agreements, while recognising that the rise of the far right adds a certain resistance to people-movement and immigration matters. While much of the migrant angst in Europe has an Islamophobic facet, its overall impact cannot be underestimated even though what India offers fill skill gaps, something that the Europeans are well aware of. As witnessed during the recent G7 Summit in Italy, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the European leaders have excellent relations. These must be leveraged for economic gains that will benefit both sides.
The writer is a former diplomat and India’s ambassador to Nepal and the EU
