With Modi Cabinet’s EBC tilt, all eyes are on 2025 Bihar election

The emergence of the EBC votes as an important voting block has gained even more statistical significance after the enumeration of the different jatis that are usually under the EBC category. According to the caste survey conducted by the Bihar government last year, when combined with the Other Backward Classes (OBC), Extremely Backward Castes make up 63 per cent of the total population of the state. When this substantial Backward Caste population is combined with the Dalits and Adivasis, the percentage reaches almost 85 per cent of the total population. The discourse on caste politics in the aftermath of the caste survey subsequently becomes an easy 85 vs 15, that is pichhra vs agda narrative, which has been a key vocabulary of caste politics in Bihar at least since the 1980s.

The post-Mandal politics that led to an increase in Backward Castes politics was dominated by a “Yadavisation” of the Backward Castes under Lalu, something that his son and political heir Tejashwi Yadav is trying hard to avoid. This is evident through his conscious decision of fielding non-Yadav OBCs from the Kushwaha community and his creatively coined acronym MY BAAP (Muslim Yadav, Bahujan, Adivasi, aadhi aabadi — women, Picchda).

In a significant shoutout to the EBC voting block, Tejashwi Yadav’s companion in his spirited campaign for 2024 was the Nishad leader and chief of the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), Mukesh Sahani. Sahani, who is also known as the “son of Mallah”, has emerged in the past few years as an important EBC leader, who claims to represent the Nishad community, a loosely put social grouping of around 22 jatis, all of which are involved in various professions related to the river economy, from boating, to fishing to making boats, nets, building ghats and so on. The BJP MP from Muzaffarpur, Raj Bhushan Choudhary, who defeated veteran Nishad leader Ajay Nishad, was also initially a member of Mukesh Sahani’s VIP, from where he had unsuccessfully contested the 2019 parliamentary election. In fact, Mukesh Sahani’s rise on the electoral horizon of Bihar with the advent of yet another small caste-based party, that of the Nishads, was essentially meant to create opportunities for new leaders and give rise to political consciousness among the community. “Hum pehle vote dekar dusron ko neta banate rahe hain, ab hum apne logon ko neta banayenge aur apne vote ke taaqat ko majboot karenge” (Earlier we always used to vote to elect others as leaders, now we will vote to create leaders from among us and we will increase the power of our vote in this way), Sahani told me during the course of several interviews.

The leadership problem has been a constant struggle across several EBC jatis, which have resorted to building small caste-based parties across Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The BJP has made significant inroads in mobilising several of these EBC communities and pitting them against dominant-caste OBC politics using religious symbols from the politics of Hindutva, in the form of icons like Kevatram or Guharaj Nishad or even reinventing historical icons like Raja Suheldev. Yet, the politics of agda vs picchra, as espoused by the discursive narrative of caste census, has been successful in tilting the EBC vote back into the fold of the Mahagathbandhan led by the RJD in Bihar. Nitish Kumar has so far enjoyed unchallenged dominance over EBC votes, who have been a mainstay of his politics of welfare and development. However, with a dip in Nitish’s popularity due to his constant shifting positions across alliances and fading personal charisma, much like the case of Naveen Patnaik in neighbouring Odisha, Nitish Kumar’s control over the EBC voters seems to be up for grabs. Irrespective of the seats won bythe JD(U), its drop in vote share has indicated that Kumar’s personal popularity will be severely tested in the Assembly elections in 2025.

Therefore, the inclusion of EBC and Dalit leaders in the Modi government for 2024 is an important step towards setting the agenda for the Bihar Assembly elections in 2025 by appointing ministers from the above communities as Union ministers. BJP may also be grooming Chirag Paswan as a leader to challenge the ascendance of Tejashwi Yadav in the Bihar Assembly. Chirag has so far only been involved in politics at the Centre. But his appeal as a young and personable leader with progressive ideas and one who enjoys the loyalty and support of the Paswan community is seen as a strong challenge to the emerging popularity of Tejashwi Yadav, who has also emerged as a young and progressive leader who talks about jobs, employment, a cross-caste alliance and promises a move away from the old days of “Yadavisation” of backward caste politics. If the 2024 parliamentary elections will be remembered for the emergence of new leadership in the political horizon of Bihar, the Assembly elections for 2025 will be important to witness the unfolding of its establishment.

The writer is assistant professor, School of Arts and Sciences, Ahmedabad University