New Delhi: Ever since the exit poll numbers were out on Saturday evening, it has become a talking point with the opposition parties discussing the reliability of the numbers projected.
Going through all the exit polls, the minimum the NDA is projected to get is 280 which is the minimum range as projected by Dainik Bhaskar and the maximum can go up to 401 as given as the top range by the India Today Axis My India for the NDA. This large variation in prediction over the same seats is what is drawing attention.
“The science of exit polls is all about predicting the vote share and seat prediction is not at all part of it. Vote share to seat conversion is a mathematical extrapolation over the data,” Yashwant Deshmukh of C Voter told ET. Deshmukh adds that given the same set of vote share, different people can predict different numbers of seats.
“Never trust an exit poll which doesn’t provide a vote share number. That’s the thumb rule,” adds Deshmukh.
C Voter has predicted NDA to win between 353 and 383 seats.
Partha Das who runs chanakyya.com and conducts pre and post poll surveys is predicting the return of Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh, opposite to what several exit polls are predicting.
“It depends on the sample collection. In our case we collect age, gender and sometimes caste details. In the initial few surveys, we found out a different voting pattern of women in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. We made a correction by getting more women samples and our result prediction is based on the vote share of men and women,” Das adds. In Karnataka, he is predicting 17 to 20 seats for the Congress as opposed to the general opinion polls giving less than 10 seats to the Congress.
In some of the exit polls, the range of seats between the minimum to maximum is very high. According to the Dainik Bhaskar Exit Poll, the NDA could get anything between 281 and 350 while the INDIA block could get 145 to 201. The political situation completely changes if the NDA gets 281 and if it gets 350 and the same applies with the INDIA block.
Even the India Today Axis My India poll gives a minimum of 361 to a maximum of 401 seats to the NDA –– a range of plus/minus 40 seats.
“Well, the only reason for giving such a high range is that no one wants to fail in their prediction and hence they try to play safe. They want to be correct in all situations,” Deshmukh adds.
Navneet Kumar, Projects Lead, ETG Research cites several reasons for the variation in poll numbers.
“Polls use a sample of the population, which inherently has a margin of error, indicating possible deviations from the actual outcome. In tightly contested seats, even small variations within the margin of error can significantly impact predictions. A range accounts for these uncertainties, presenting a more realistic picture of the potential outcome. Thus, the range reflects the inherent uncertainties and potential variations in voter behaviour,” he says.
Times Now-ETG is projecting 335 to 368 seats for the NDA and gives an edge to YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh.
