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The foreign hand in Bangladesh – and concerns for India

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sheikh hasina bangladeshBangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina. (Photo: Sheikh Hasina/ X)

Recent statements by Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina highlighted a few strategically significant issues. She referred to a plot to carve out a “Christian state like East Timor” out of parts of Bangladesh and Myanmar, a demand to build an airbase in Bangladeshi territory by a foreign country, and pressure on Bangladesh to export natural gas to India. These statements came soon after she secured her fourth consecutive victory in the parliamentary elections.

There is no clarity about which country Hasina was referring to. She did, however, mention that the offer came from a “White man”. Was she referring to the US? The state of affairs between Dhaka and Washington may well give this sense. In the 2024 elections, the US commented on Bangladesh’s democracy and the electoral process. It imposed visa curbs and also sanctioned officials of the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) for human rights violations. The US had earlier attempted to make headway in the region by backing anti-Hasina forces such as the National Unity Government (NUG) and People’s Defence Forces (PDF). Another example of the chill is that America invited Pakistan for a virtual summit on democracy (2021) and not Bangladesh. Hasina had earlier remarked that her government is facing such criticism from the US because it refused to let the latter have a naval base on St Martin Island in the Bay of Bengal. Bengal. The US has used its strategic interests to align its policies vis-a-vis Bangladesh.

As a historical node of the global silk trade and because of its access to the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal (BoB) has attracted the interest of several international actors, including the US and China. During the Cold War, the Americans wanted to minimise Soviet influence and power in the region and now, there are similar concerns over China. The US has long wanted to have a strong military and political presence in the BoB region. In the 1950s, US Secretary of State John Foster Dulles realised the significance of the strategic location of the then undivided Pakistan. The region fit neatly into the American concept of a “bridge” between the Middle East and Southeast Asia — the two wings of Pakistan were located at the western and eastern side of the Subcontinent. Thus, the US invited Pakistan into Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) and Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) in 1954-55. It is for the same reason that the US opposed the creation of Bangladesh in 1971 and sent its nuclear carrier, the USS Enterprise, to the BoB.

In 1998, the US proposed that Bangladesh sign the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), which would enable American troops to conduct joint exercises and take part in rescue and relief operations. Fearing the violation of its sovereignty Bangladesh opposed the agreement and instead, the softer Humanitarian Assistance Need Assessment (HANA) was signed. At this time, the US wanted this provision to secure its investments, particularly ($750 million in 1999) in the natural gas sector.

Even during the Sheikh Mujibur Rahman period, Americans used the “carrot and stick” policy. There are instances when the US used food aid as a direct instrument for political pressure. During the 1974 famine, the US suspended its food aid to Bangladesh because the country started exporting jute to a blacklisted country, Cuba. Even the recognition of Bangladesh was linked with the Indian troops’ withdrawal. A pro-Soviet Finance Minister, Tajuddin Ahmad, was forced to resign from the cabinet prior to Henry Kissinger’s visit to Dhaka. America’s embrace of “democracy” and its discontents in the recent election could well be tied to St Martin Island.

Festive offer

In recent decades, there has been a spurt in the Chinese economic and infrastructure projects in the BoB region. Beijing aspires for physical connectivity along the BoB through projects like the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM) and China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). This may avoid a choke point — the Malacca Straits — for Chinese trade and give strategic access to the BoB. In Myanmar, the Chinese are supporting the military junta as well as rebel-armed ethnic groups by providing logistic and arms support. They have also given false hope by proposing mediation for the repatriation of Rohingya refugees. For the Chinese, this region is also a source of natural gas imports through pipelines from Sittwe (Myanmar) to China’s Yunnan province.

The relationship between Bangladesh and China is deepening. As Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, China has made substantial investments in manufacturing and infrastructure projects – the Karnaphuli tunnel, Padma Bridge, Payra deep-sea port, and Chittagong shipping facility. It has also proposed upgrading Sylhet Airport and dredging the Teesta River. China’s portrayal of itself as a politically neutral and non-interfering partner has garnered favour within the country. Defence cooperation has also become a cornerstone, as China is Bangladesh’s primary arms supplier. Apart from economic reasons, one may also argue that increasing US inference in its internal affairs is pushing Bangladesh towards China.

India has a significant interest in Bangladesh and Myanmar for the development of India’s Northeastern states and to execute its Act East policy. China has already reduced India’s space in the region; how far the US will address India’s interest is a vital question.

The writer is professor, School of International Studies, JNU

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