Former Telangana CM and BRS supremo KCR campaigning ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in the state. (Photo: BRS/ X)
In the 2024 parliamentary elections for Telangana’s 17 seats, the political scenario is shaping up to be a competitive three-way contest. The Congress party and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are squaring off against each other in many constituencies, while the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), which once held sway over the state, is focusing more on consolidating its vote share than winning outright. For the BRS, this election is crucial for maintaining its political relevance within the state. Congress is currently in a favourable position following its victory in the recent assembly elections, while the BJP has been buoyed by its performance in both the assembly elections and the Hyderabad municipal elections. The success of these two national parties will depend heavily on whether the BRS can retain its traditional voter base.
The BRS faces potential existential challenges. Several factors contribute to its precarious situation. First, the morale within the party has significantly declined following its unexpected loss in the 2023 assembly elections, where it secured only 39 of the 119 seats. This decline is further exacerbated by the arrest of K Kavitha, daughter of the former Chief Minister K Chandrasekar Rao, in connection with a money laundering case. Moreover, the visible discord and poor coordination among its party members have further aggravated the situation.
The party has also suffered from defections to the BJP and Congress just before the elections, weakening its prospects further. Notably, the BRS, which had initiated “Operation Akarshan” to attract leaders from these two parties, is now seeing a reversal of this trend. The party finds itself in a challenging position, holding the majority with 9 out of 17 Lok Sabha seats, yet struggling to field candidates across many constituencies. Notably, sitting the BRS MPs from Zaheerabad and Nagarkurnool have switched allegiances to the BJP. Similarly, MPs representing Chevella and Warangal, along with the MLA from Khairatabad, have joined Congress. This has led to a situation where several potential candidates are either approaching other parties or awaiting the results of the 2024 elections before making their move.
Over a decade since the formation of the state, the fervour of the Telangana Movement, which once galvanised significant public and political support, has faded. This waning sentiment presents a significant challenge for the BRS, which had capitalised on regional pride to ascend to power. Initially, the movement’s success was a testament to the effective mobilisation and strong emotional appeal crafted by the BRS leadership, embodying the aspirations for a “Bangaru Telangana” or golden state. However, as the initial enthusiasm has subsided and the realities of governance have set in, the BRS has struggled to maintain its momentum. The lack of new milestones or significant achievements to rally the populace has left the party vulnerable, struggling to invoke the same level of regional sentiment that once secured it a robust electoral mandate. This shift has left the BRS scrambling to redefine its political strategy in an environment where its foundational appeal has diminished, making it increasingly difficult to engage voters with the same intensity as in past elections.
A key development also is the weakening of the BRS’s informal alliance with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul-Muslimeen (AIMIM). After the Congress secured 64 out of 119 Assembly seats in the 2023 elections, it began courting AIMIM, which holds seven seats, to mitigate any future threats to its stability. This courtship by Congress appears to be succeeding, posing a considerable risk to the BRS as it stands to lose a crucial ally, further destabilising its position in the state. Concurrently, the BJP, recognising the BRS’s vulnerabilities, has intensified its efforts to erode the party’s support base. Despite traditionally lacking strong local cadres and a broad appeal in Telangana, the BJP has been capitalising on the so-called Modi wave to attract disenchanted BRS cadres and voters. The BJP, however, struggles to field strong candidates from its own ranks and has thus been focusing its recruitment efforts on BRS’s ranks. Furthermore, the BRS is finding it increasingly challenging to maintain even a semblance of its previous tacit understanding with the BJP, complicating its strategic options. This dynamic not only highlights the opportunistic nature of party politics in the region but also underscores the precarious position of the BRS as it navigates these turbulent political waters.
The BRS is contending with significant hurdles that stem not only from external political dynamics but also from deeply ingrained perceptions and demographic realities. It is grappling with a pervasive narrative that took root during the 2023 Assembly elections, characterised by the widespread criticism of the perceived arrogance growing out of a decade of family-centric governance, the inaccessibility of its leaders, serious corruption charges and, notably, the failure to fulfil promises to key voter groups such as Dalits and unemployed youths. Such criticism has contributed to a challenging electoral atmosphere, as the party struggles to reshape its image and regain the trust of disillusioned voters.
Compounding these challenges are the caste dynamics within Telangana. The BRS leadership draws primarily from the Velama community, which constitutes a mere three per cent of the state’s population. This demographic limitation inherently restricts the party’s ability to establish a broader core voter base, thus diminishing its electoral advantage. Together, these factors delineate a party at a crossroads, struggling to navigate the multifaceted challenges of contemporary political engagements and shifting voter expectations.
Despite these challenges, the BRS’s enduring schemes like Rythu Bandhu, Shaadi Mubarak, pensions, medical aid and the continued reverence for K Chandrasekhar Rao as a significant leader, may still sway some voters.
Ultimately, the outcome of the elections will determine whether Congress can capitalise on its current momentum, and the BJP can expand its influence, or whether the BRS can reclaim its former standing in Telangana’s political landscape.
The writer is Professor and Head, Department of Political Science, Maulana Azad National Urdu University, Hyderabad
