May 10, 2024 07:29 PM IST
The NDA roadshow in Vijayawada, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi along with alliance partners, indicates a significant shift in Andhra Pradesh poll scenario.
On May 8, I was in Vijayawada to witness the NDA roadshow led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi of BJP along with alliance partners N Chandrababu Naidu of Telugu Desam and Pawan Kalyan of Jan Sena on M G road. For a party which drew nil in both the 2019 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the toast of the show and town as the electorate from neighbouring districts Guntur and Rajamundary thronged in large numbers to have a glimpse of their leaders. With the entire MG road turned into a party zone, the roadshow made it amply evident that in the forthcoming Lok Sabha and Assembly election polling day on May 13, the state will go NDA positive with BJP reopening its account with better numbers and higher voting percentage.
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Credible internal election surveys indicated that the NDA alliance should bag some 19 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats with TDP grabbing the lion’s share of 13 seats followed by BJP with four and Jan Sena Party with two and Jagan Reddy’s YSRCP confined to five seats only. The Congress party is expected to bag one seat only in Lok Sabha. Unlike the last time when the TDP, BJP and Jan Sena fought election separately in 2019, the three parties representing dominant communities of Andhra–Rajus, Kamma, Kappu–are a force to reckon this time as Rajus, who are land holders and industrialists, are backing the BJp, Kammas are repesented by Chandrababu Naidu and Kappus are traditionally behind Pawan Kalyan and his big brother Chiranjeevi. It is quite electorally auspicious that megastar Chiranjeevi was awarded the Padma Vibhushan by the Modi government on Thursday evening with his quite and unassuming son Ram Charan and his wife in attendance.
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This mood in favour of NDA will also get reflected in the Assembly elections with surveys indicating that the TDP will form the state government with a clear majority of 105 seats and alliance bagging no less than 126 seats. The ruling Jagan Reddy party will be confined to some 47 seats and Congress will be bagging some two seats. As per estimates, the BJP will get five Assembly seats with higher voting percentage and hence reopen its Assembly account with the voter crystallizing in favour of TDP and NDA in the forthcoming elections.
In the Parliamentary elections, the BJP is expected to bag Tirupati, Narasapuram, Rajahmundary and Araku seats with a decent chance in Anakapalli. PM Modi had a humongous rally in Rajampet on Wednesday but the money power and resources of the Jagan Reddy party candidate outmatches the BJP candidate. In Andhra Pradesh, the money accompanies the voter slip to the electorate with numbers varying from ₹1500 to ₹5000 per voter depending on the financial clout of rich Andhra Pradesh. BJP President Jagat Prakash Nadda is holding a roadshow for the BJP’s candidate in Tirupati on May 11, the last day of campaigning.
After I talked to a number of people on the streets in and around Vijayawada, the support for TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu was evident as his arrest last September in a corruption case have evoked a strong anti-Jagan sentiment and has pushed the TDP narrative to a electoral wave in favour of Naidu. Internal surveys indicate that the NDA alliance will get a total of 52 per cent voter percentage in its favour while Jagan party’s reduced to 40 per cent share in the forthcoming Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. It seems that the new voter and youth are inclined towards the NDA while the elder electors, especially beneficiaries of social welfare schemes, are preferring the YSRCP of Jagan Reddy. Both state employees and unemployed are dissatisfied with the present regime with the business community, particularly the rich gold merchants, are hoping for a change in the government. The economic impact of state capital Amaravati is very much visible in erstwhile Godavari, Krishna and Guntur districts with undercurrent wave intensifying in favour of Chandrababu Naidu after he released the manifesto promising free bus travel and free gas cylinder schemes to woo the women voters.
Currently many parts of Andhra Pradesh are undergoing severe drinking water crisis, and water tap to every house scheme is silently showing impact on voter’s psyche in favor of NDA.
The much hyped and anticipated YSRCP manifesto failed to attract attention as it contains no new schemes and neither a redressal mechanism for further implementation of existing schemes. The bad condition of the road network and retrogressive mode in development is impacting on voter’s choice and will woo the voter in favour of NDA. While PM Modi continues to rule the hearts of majority Hindu voters, the involvement of Jagan Reddy party in conversions to Christianity in coastal Andhra has also polarized the voter in favor of the NDA. The electoral situation in Telangana is no different as the Lok Sabha election seems to be a direct fight between the BJP and Congress with BRS confined to margins as the public elects a national leader. The mood in Telangana seems BJP positive with both PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah holding big rallies and roadshows in the erstwhile Nizam dominion. With Congress openly wooing the Muslims in the state, the election has polarized with majority in favour of PM Modi and his Viksit Bharat campaign. The high voltage campaign of BJP’s Madhavi Latha has pushed the party very much into a contest with AIMIM Asaduddin Owaisi but given the strength and committed voting patterns of Muslim minorities in favour of winning candidate against the BJP, the Hyderabad result should be a tight match.
While the BJP will add to the voting percentage and improve on the 2019 Lok Sabha results of four seats, it will be interesting to see whether the national party is able to match the money power of local satraps. However, the BJP is expected to put up a winning performance in Secunderabad, Nizamabad, Karimnagar, Mahbubnagar, Zaheerabad and Malkajgiri with contest in Chevella, Nagarkurnool, Hyderabad, Adilabad and Warangal constituencies. Home Minister Amit Shah has put the BJP seat numbers at 10 out of 17 in Telangana but a lot depends on the voter counter-polarization as the minorities have decided to consolidate against the BJP.
While the BJP will add to its Telangana numbers and open the account with a four or a sixer in Andhra Pradesh, the party and its apex leadership is very confident of returning to power. The massive work ethics and energy displayed by top leaders led by PM Modi has simply tired the INDI alliance with regional partners simply focusing on saving their forts. PM Modi is out of Delhi for the next four days culminating in the roadshow and filing of nomination in Varanasi on May 14. The commitment shown by the BJP leadership and the erratic campaigning by the INDI alliance clearly indicates who is winning the 2024 elections. Bets are only on the NDA’s victory margin on June 4.
- ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Author of Indian Mujahideen: The Enemy Within (2011, Hachette) and Himalayan Face-off: Chinese Assertion and Indian Riposte (2014, Hachette). Awarded K Subrahmanyam Prize for Strategic Studies in 2015 by Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) and the 2011 Ben Gurion Prize by Israel.
