The backroom math and last-minute calculations that went into Congress party’s candidate picks for Amethi, Rae Bareli

(This story originally appeared in on May 05, 2024)

NEW DELHI: It was not a minor coincidence that the day Rahul Gandhi‘s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra entered Rae Bareli on Feb 20 was also the day Sonia Gandhi was elected to Rajya Sabha from Rajasthan, marking her transition in Parliament and creating a vacancy that was at the root of the tortuous brainstorming which ended with Rahul’s nomination from Rae Bareli on Friday.

Rahul’s switch from Amethi to Rae Bareli and Kishori Lal Sharma’s elevation from a constituency manager to candidate, all at the last moment, marked the culmination of cogitation in Congress that made aligning available options with political objectives a Herculean task. In the end, Congress managed to land on its feet, as shown by the surge of emotion and support during the nomination in the patch of UP that once was known as the Gandhi family bastion, but has since morphed into a veritable challenge.

Like all that turned the world upside down for Congress in the run up to Mandate 2024, the defeat in Decpolls in north India rekindled doubts among strategists who were eagerly waiting for wins in MP and Chhattisgarh to cement the party’s claim in the twin seats. But within two months, as Rahul’s yatra waded into the VIP pocket to a tumultuous welcome, Congress swung back from despair to hope.

The assumption was that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra would replace mother Sonia in Rae Bareli, while Rahul would contest a second seat from Amethi, after Wayanad.

Simple as it sounded, it turned out to be a far more complicated task.

Though the discussion spanned two months, it is learnt that neither of the siblings were keen to contest. Rahul had scruples about the prospect of vacating Wayanad, which stood by him when he lost Amethi in 2019, while Priyanka apparently was against the idea of another Gandhi in Parliament, especially in the same election. It was here that the Congress brass led by chief Mallikarjun Kharge started nudging the siblings that they should fight the elections from UP.

Pressure was piled on Rahul that Rae Bareli could not be surrendered, as it represents a family legacy, starting with Feroze Gandhi who chose it for the first election post-independence in 1952 to Sonia Gandhi till 2024. Sources said Priyanka was nagged till as late as this week that she should take up the battle too.

The concern was if Rahul shifted to Rae Bareli, BJP would land with a readymade attack line that he ran away from Amethi and Smriti Irani, his nemesis in last election. At the same time, some felt that Priyanka in Amethi would be a better strategic manoevure in the form of a “woman vs woman” contest.

As if the multiple variables were not enough, allies and workers doubled their push for the Gandhi siblings to take up the cudgels, warning that a no-show would shatter the perception that the party had miraculously managed in what was supposed to be an impossible 2024 matchup against post-Ayodhya BJP.

But as Priyanka stuck to her guns, Rahul had to contend with contesting alone in UP, even as the issue of family legacy hovered over the discussions to dictate the choice of seat. In the end, a reluctant Rahul agreed to contest from Rae Bareli to balance the umpteen equations. And Congress, left with no family friends like Satish Sharma in the past, fell back on constituency manager K L Sharma, who has been marshalling cadres and strategy for the past four decades.

During this period, part of the delay was because Rahul and the party were careful that any public debate on the issue was only held after the voting concluded in Wayanad, lest it riled the voters in Kerala. In future too, vacating Wayanad would not be easy, as Congress would be preparing for Kerala assembly polls in 2026. Kerala is a priority for Congress since rival Left managed to win an unprecedented repeat term in 2021, triggering a crisis in state Congress while a covetous BJP is trying hard to step into any opening.

Notwithstanding BJP’s trolling that Rahul ran away from Amethi, stakes remain high for the Gandhi family in its former borough. With K L Sharma by her side and a packed crowd in front, Priyanka told the nomination rally in Amethi that she would return on May 6 and would camp there till the end of election.

As days pass, it would be clear that it is the family’s equity on the ballot despite Sharma being the candidate.