A heatwave to severe heatwave has taken hold over east and south peninsular India and will continue during the next five days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday, a warning that covers a swathe of the country where elections are due in the next two phases.
The warning identified Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha and Bihar, and some parts over Jharkhand that will face “heatwave or severe heatwave conditions”. Pockets over Rayalaseema, interior Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana will have similarly hot weather.
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An analysis by HT of projected maximum peaks from the US National Weather Services — one of the few resources to give such temperature projections — showed a whopping 186 of the 191 seats where polls are due in the next two phases will have peak temperatures above 35°C in the next five days.
Among these, 136 constituencies are projected have peaks of above 40°C, which can bring dangerous levels of heat exposures and yet again deter people from voting at a time when turnouts have dropped.
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“The heatwave to severe heatwave event over Odisha and Gangetic WB is very intense. We are not expecting any relief before May 1 after which there may be some thunderstorm activity. The heat episode over east India has been prolonged. Normally only 1-3 days of heat wave is expected in April,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
On Friday and Saturday, many areas had recorded maximum temperatures that had breached the 98th percentile (2% chance that temperatures will fall above this threshold for that time period). These were concentrated in Odisha and West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.
“Today, heatwave to severe heatwave conditions prevailed in many parts over Gangetic West Bengal, in some parts over Bihar and Odisha and in isolated pockets over Rayalaseema, and heatwave conditions in isolated pockets over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Konkan & Goa and Telangana. Heat wave conditions have been prevailing over Odisha since 15th and over Gangetic West Bengal since 17th April,” said an IMD update.
Nandyal, in Rayalseema, was the hottest location in the country on Sunday with a peak temperature of 45.6°C, 4.6 degrees above what is normal for this time of the year, according to IMD.
Of the 186 parliamentary constituencies where the maximum will average at least 35°C in the days up to May 2, 136 will average a maximum of 40°C or higher. In fact, 15 constituencies are likely to average a maximum of 44-45°C from April 28 to May 2, HT’s analysis of the Global Forecast System (GFS) of the US National Weather Service data suggested.
Temperatures do not necessarily need to surpass 40°C to be dangerous. The combination of humidity with heat is worse for human health since people cool down by sweating. One way this is measured is via wet-bulb temperature, which reflects the conditions someone will feel outdoors — once this measure passes 32°C, people are at extreme risk of adverse health effects. Another measure is the heat index, which too accounts for humidity in how the temperature affects a person, but this reflects conditions in shade.
According to IMD, many parts of the east coast and the peninsular south will record heat index of 40-50 degrees C, with some places even going up to 60°C, as per heat index forecasts provided by IMD.
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Heat index combines air temperature and relative humidity for the public to accordingly take related precautions.
The weather agency therefore issued red alerts for Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar and Jharkhand, warning that there is very high likelihood of developing heat-related illnesses in all ages. Extreme care will be needed for vulnerable people, it added.
In Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema and interior Karnataka, the agency issued an orange alert, which suggests those with vulnerabilities due to their age or other illnesses should avoid heat exposure.
These locations have been recording oppressive heat, with the spell being unusually warmer than usual. IMD data showed the variation from normal at in at least nine locations in Gangetic West Bengal to be between 6 to 8.6 degrees higher. Among these were Diamond Harbour, Panagarh and Midnapore, which recorded close to or over 43°C maximum temperatures.
In the first two phases, there has been a notable reduction in the aggregate turnout, with some regions recording big drops. Election commission officials on Sunday told HT that the second phase recorded an aggregate of 66.70%, which is a drop from 69.6% recorded overall in 2019 elections, although exactly the same as 66.7% recorded in 2014.
Experts said that the spell of heatwave will coincide with electioneering and voting will need careful consideration by authorities and political parties. “It is very necessary that organisers of election campaigns and voters, particularly the elderly and those suffering from chronic diseases, take all precautions to keep themselves safe when they expose themselves to high heat during campaigns and while they go out to cast their votes. Religiously implementing the heatwave Do’s and Don’ts advisories issued by the authorities on ground can make the biggest democratic exercise of world “heatwave safe”,” said Abhiyant Tiwari, lead at Climate Resilience and Health, NRDC India.
In the first phase, the turnout was a little over 66%, compared to 69.3% for the same seats (excluding the six seats in Assam and Jammu and Kashmir, where boundaries have been redrawn in a delimitation exercise) in 2019, with analysts attributing the dip to reasons that range from the weather to voter apathy.
On Saturday, maximum temperatures ranged from 42 to 45 degrees Celsius in some places of Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Telangana. Temperatures reached 40 to 42 degrees in many parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Interior Maharashtra, North Tamil Nadu, Marathwada and eastern Uttar Pradesh — 4 to 9 degrees above normal in many parts of Gangetic West Bengal and northern Odisha.
In northern regions, some rain and storms will continue. Rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds is likely to continue over the Western Himalayan Region and adjoining plains of Northwest India on April 29, the IMD prediction said. Heavy rainfall with isolated thunderstorms and lightning is forecast over northeast India through April 30, becoming heavy to very heavy from May 1.
